IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Air Force
Mountain West
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.0	#212
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.9	#280
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.7	#218

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.3	#219

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.8%	1.4%	0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.4	12.9	14.4

.500 or above	19.8%	32.9%	12.1%
.500 or above in Conference	18.7%	26.2%	14.4%
Conference Champion	0.4%	0.6%	0.2%
Last Place in Conference	17.4%	12.7%	20.2%

First Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
First Round	0.7%	1.2%	0.4%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Away) - 37.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 2.4	0.1 - 2.4
Quad 1b	0.2 - 1.7	0.2 - 4.2
Quad 2	0.8 - 3.7	1.0 - 7.9
Quad 3	2.8 - 5.9	3.8 - 13.8
Quad 4	7.0 - 4.4	10.8 - 18.2

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2018	203	@ Texas St.	L	63-64	37%
Nov 16, 2018	214	Maryland Baltimore Co.	W	69-68	50%
Nov 18, 2018	134	South Dakota	L	68-73	31%
Nov 19, 2018	255	High Point	W	68-66	59%
Nov 24, 2018	84	Colorado	L	64-73	30%
Nov 28, 2018	190	Missouri St.	L	66-68	54%
Dec 01, 2018	168	@ Pacific	L	67-70	31%
Dec 05, 2018	200	Denver	L	67-68	57%
Dec 08, 2018	216	Army	W	72-71	61%
Dec 22, 2018	19	@ Michigan	L	58-74	5%
Dec 28, 2018	282	UC Riverside	W	69-66	71%
Jan 02, 2019	92	New Mexico	L	71-79	33%
Jan 05, 2019	144	@ Utah St.	L	67-71	27%
Jan 08, 2019	180	@ Colorado St.	L	70-72	34%
Jan 12, 2019	45	San Diego St.	L	63-76	20%
Jan 16, 2019	139	UNLV	L	72-77	43%
Jan 19, 2019	7	@ Nevada	L	65-85	3%
Jan 22, 2019	95	Boise St.	L	65-73	34%
Jan 26, 2019	321	@ San Jose St.	W	69-62	63%
Jan 30, 2019	45	@ San Diego St.	L	63-76	9%
Feb 02, 2019	180	Colorado St.	L	70-72	53%
Feb 06, 2019	173	Wyoming	L	73-75	52%
Feb 12, 2019	139	@ UNLV	L	72-77	25%
Feb 16, 2019	144	Utah St.	L	67-71	45%
Feb 20, 2019	91	@ Fresno St.	L	64-72	18%
Feb 23, 2019	321	San Jose St.	W	69-62	79%
Mar 02, 2019	173	@ Wyoming	L	73-75	34%
Mar 05, 2019	7	Nevada	L	65-85	8%
Mar 09, 2019	95	@ Boise St.	L	65-73	19%
Projected Record						10.8 - 18.2	6.0 - 12.0

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0				1.1	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	1.1	0.9	0.4	0.1						2.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.6	1.8	1.4	0.4	0.0							4.3	4th
5th								0.0	1.0	2.7	2.2	0.7	0.0								6.6	5th
6th							0.1	1.3	4.0	2.9	0.6	0.1									9.0	6th
7th					0.0	0.2	1.7	5.0	4.1	0.9	0.0										12.0	7th
8th				0.0	0.4	2.5	6.0	5.0	1.0	0.0											14.9	8th
9th			0.0	1.2	4.1	6.8	4.6	0.8	0.0												17.7	9th
10th		0.3	2.5	6.8	6.5	3.4	0.6	0.0													20.1	10th
11th	0.8	3.0	3.9	2.4	0.8	0.1															11.0	11th

Total	0.8	3.3	6.4	10.5	11.8	13.0	13.0	12.2	10.2	7.2	5.0	3.3	1.6	1.0	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	98.6%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	60.0%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0
14-4	24.4%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	4.6%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.7%	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.4%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%												0.0
17-1	0.0%		6.9%		6.9%	9.0										0.0								0.0		6.9%
16-2	0.1%		59.0%	0.7%	58.3%	9.0						0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0					0.0		58.7%
15-3	0.2%		38.9%	21.9%	17.0%	10.1									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		21.8%
14-4	0.4%		9.0%	0.8%	8.2%	11.0											0.0	0.0	0.0					0.3		8.3%
13-5	1.0%		7.9%	4.6%	3.3%	12.5									0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.9		3.5%
12-6	1.6%		4.5%	2.7%	1.7%	12.1												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			1.6		1.8%
11-7	3.3%		2.6%	2.6%	0.0%	13.7												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		3.3		0.0%
10-8	5.0%		1.8%	1.8%		14.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9
9-9	7.2%		1.1%	1.1%	0.0%	14.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.1		0.0%
8-10	10.2%		1.0%	1.0%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	10.1
7-11	12.2%		0.6%	0.6%		15.2															0.0	0.1	0.0	12.1
6-12	13.0%		0.0%	0.0%		15.8																0.0	0.0	13.0
5-13	13.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	13.0
4-14	11.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
3-15	10.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.5
2-16	6.4%																							6.4
1-17	3.3%																							3.3
0-18	0.8%																							0.8

Total	100%		0.8%	0.6%	0.2%	13.4						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	99.2		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%